High-Resolution Coupled Earth System Modeling: An Application – Studies on the Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Genesis

报告时间：2021年5月20日（星期四）上午10:30—11:30

报告地点：第八教学楼319会议室

报告人：张绍晴

Title of the talk: “High-Resolution Coupled Earth System Modeling: An Application – Studies on the Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Genesis”

Abstract of the talk:

Climate science studies clearly reveal that Earth Systems (ESs) and Human Systems (HSs) impact with respect to each other, and HSs produce anthropogenic climate process drivers by greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. Given that ESs provide resources and environments for human living and development, while global change brings out severe local climate abnormality, what is the adaptive strategy for us local people? Also, two scientific questions are at the front of climate science community: 1) how global change impacts on local weather-climate anomalies, and 2) how local weather-climate perturbations feedback to large scale changes/variations? This talk first shows the development plans of Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (QNLM) on earth modeling and predictions to address these issues, and discuss significant challenges as well as potential solutions with high-resolution (HR) Earth modeling. Then this talk uses tropical cyclone genesis predictability as an example of climate impact and vulnerability studies to show the important role of HR modeling.

Predicting tropical cyclone (TC) genesis is of great societal importance but scientifically challenging. It requires fine resolution coupled models that properly represent air–sea interactions in the atmospheric responses to local warm sea surface temperatures and feedbacks, with aids from coherent coupled initialization. This talk reports a few sets of high-resolution regional coupled models (RCMs) covering the Asia–Pacific (AP) region initialized with local observations and dynamically downscaled coupled data assimilation to evaluate the predictability of TC genesis in the West Pacific. The AP-RCMs consist of two set resolutions of Weather Research and Forecast–Regional Ocean Model System (WRF-ROMS): 27-km WRF with 9-km ROMS, and 9-km WRF with 3-km ROMS. With finer resolved local sea surface temperatures and wind shear conditions, the enhanced-resolution coupled model improves the predictability of TC genesis. Higher-resolution two-way nesting experiments confirm that resolving much detailed interior structures of a TC and their interactions with the background help sustain the correct intensity and pathway. The forecasts of TC genesis, intensity and moving track could be further improved by improving planetary boundary-layer physics thus better resolving air–sea and air–land interactions.

简历：张绍晴，原美国国家海洋大气管理局（NOAA）研究员，2016年底回国，现任中国海洋大学“筑峰第一层次”特聘教授，青岛海洋科学与技术试点国家实验室“鳌山人才”卓越科学家，山东省“泰山人才”特聘专家，青岛市“创新领军人才”。在大气—海洋耦合资料同化和初始化研究方面作出过杰出贡献，曾荣获NOAA杰出研究论文奖、美国联邦商业部研究和发展金牌奖。在自然子刊和气候杂志等多种国际期刊上发表研究论文逾百篇。受邀在英国里丁大学、挪威贝尔根大学、美国夏威夷大学、日本东京大学、韩国首尔大学等多地开展学术演讲和授课。其设计的“全球气候耦合资料同化系统”，作为NOAA气候预报系统代表，参加联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会第5次评估报告，被公认为全球唯一能一致性描述季节年际到年代际变化的气候预报系统。现主持国家重点研发计划专项、基金委重点项目等，致力于国家级的高分辨率全球和超高分辨率区域地球系统模拟和预报预测系统建设，在国产众核异构超算平台上研发自主知识产权的超高分辨率地球系统模式，在此基础上开启海洋及天气气候时间和空间尺度无缝隙可预报性研究，并打造无缝隙预报预测科学实验平台。